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Meanwhile, the urban population remains largely cowed. The PFDJ's Secretary General languishes in medical exile in UAE; Isaias chairs the party's monthly meetings in his absence. Neither the government, party, nor populace seem to have the wherewithal to effect a sudden change in government. The military does. We've heard increasingly frequent and specific reports of mutinous behavior from within the military, sparked by growing numbers of troops deserting across the border into Sudan and even into Ethiopia. The mantle of Eritrean nationalism could conceivably pass from the shoulders of Isaias Afwerki to the Eritrean Defense Force. Defense Minister Sebhat Efrem probably has the standing to paper over the rivalries of the senior generals (at least temporarily), should the military or a faction of it suddenly find the need to step in to "save the revolution. " MCMULLEN
Thursday, 05 March 2009, 13:21 S E C R E T ASMARA 000080 DEPARTMENT FOR AF/EX AND AF/E EO 12958 DECL: 03/04/2019 TAGS PGOV, PREL, ECON, PINR, ER SUBJECT: IS ERITREA UNRAVELING? REF: ADDIS ABABA 567 Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1. 4(d) 1. (S) Summary: Young Eritreans are fleeing their country in droves, the economy appears to be in a death spiral, Eritrea's prisons are overflowing, and the country's unhinged dictator remains cruel and defiant. Is the country "on the brink of disaster" as posited by Eritrea's first cousins across the border in Tigray, Ethiopia (ref)? Party leaders tell us their Leninist "war economy" will be reversed, while Asmara is abuzz with reports of multiple cabinet-level changes. However, tinkering at the margins of governance will count for naught as long as the Isaias regime remains a one-man band. Gold mining will not provide the anticipated economic panacea. Although the regime is one bullet away from implosion, Eritrea's resilience as a country is based on 1) a strong sense of nationalism forged over four decades of war, and 2) the capacity of most Eritreans to withstand suffering and deprivation with forbearance and toughness.
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